Every price you see on Predictions on the Betr app tells you something specific: the market's current read on how likely an outcome is. Here's how that number actually gets set.
Setting the very first price
A brand-new market doesn't launch with a starting price. There are no shares yet, and nobody has staked out odds. Instead, traders (often called market makers when they're the ones setting prices) place orders at whatever level they're comfortable with.
A trade only happens once a YES order and a NO order add up to exactly $1.00. When that happens, the match converts that dollar into one YES share and one NO share, each landing in the respective buyer's account.
For example, say a market asks whether Tim Cook will still be Apple's CEO by year's end. If someone places a YES order at 60¢ and someone else places a NO order at 40¢, those two orders match, and that becomes the market's opening price.*
How the price updates from there
Once trading is underway, the price you see reflects the midpoint between the best available bid and ask in the order book. If that gap between bid and ask ever widens past 10 cents, the display switches to the last price a trade actually happened at instead. In short, prices move the same way they do in any market: driven by whoever's buying and selling in real time.
Reading price as probability
Picture a market where the bid sits at 34¢ and the ask sits at 40¢. The midpoint, 37%, is what gets shown as the current probability. Once the spread crosses that 10-cent threshold, the probability shown switches over to the most recent trade price instead.
*The example above is for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect an actual market or outcome.